Western Myanmar has undergone a dramatic shift in governance: the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) now controls most of Rakhine State and parts of southern Chin, creating Myanmar’s most significant non-state authority by territory. This policy brief explains how the ULA/AA built power, how its governance model is expanding, and the humanitarian and political risks ahead. Read the brief for a picture of what this new reality means for aid access, regional diplomacy, and prospects for a durable settlement.
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A Rohingya woman walks in a camp in Pauk Taw whose occupants in 2014 were classed as illegal Bengali immigrants and restricted from leaving or travelling. Anonymous photographer from Myanmar.
Rakhine's Changing Political Order and the Future of Rohingya Citizenship
This policy brief examines the evolving political landscape in Rakhine State following the 2021 military coup and the consolidation of de facto authority by the Arakan Army (AA)/United League of Arakan (ULA). The AA/ULA have established a parallel proto state with its own administrative, judicial and security structures that now govern daily life for many communities. While the emergence of a new substate governance system has altered power relations in the region, it has not resolved Rohingya statelessness. Instead, it has generated new and compounded vulnerabilities linked to legal exclusion, identity denial, and constrained political participation, alongside the persistence and, in some areas, intensification of longstanding discriminatory practices.